Met Office heatwave verdict as UK finally set for warm temperatures

Temperatures are expected to rise across the UK as we head into June

Longer spells of dry weather and warmer temperatures have been forecast across the UK this month. The Met Office has said that we can expect more settled weather towards the end of May with temperatures most likely to be near or slightly above average as we near the end of spring and head into summer.

But any reports of a mini heatwave hitting the UK are more than premature.

Before sunshine and dry weather is expected for Wales, unsettled conditions are forecast from Sunday May 17 until Tuesday May 26 with temperatures cooler than average.

The forecast for next week states: “Changeable and at times rather unsettled conditions look to dominate at first, with low pressure often close by. This means periods of rain or showers, some of which could be heavy, for many places, though some drier interludes are also expected.

“As this period progresses, high pressure is likely to begin to build from the south bringing more in the way of settled weather. Temperatures likely cooler than average to begin, but tending to recover as the period progresses, perhaps becoming rather warm by the end of the period, especially in the south.”

After the rain will come sunshine across the UK, as more settled weather is predicted for the end of May and the beginning of June. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here.

But will we get a heatwave?

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is currently forecasting maximum possible temperatures of 26C in the UK on the evening of May 22. The model shows warmest weather expected to hit just south of London, although the mercury could reach 23C or 24C across parts of Wales, central England and the east as well.

The Met Office is more sceptical and will not make such detailed predictions more than five days in advance, but they are also forecasting warmer weather. Their long range forecast states that by May 26 the weather may become “rather warm” and “especially in the south”.

Meanwhile BBC weather says that from May 25 the weather will “most probably drier and warmer than normal”.

Their monthly outlook states: “It is again possible that the centre of high pressure could be positioned to the north for a while, with some or most of the UK perhaps cooling down a little for a couple of days.

“However, high pressure could also expand across the UK from the southwest, delivering warmer-than-average conditions again by the end of May.”

June will likely see more mixed conditions with spells of rain and showers, but also some drier weather at times and higher temperatures.